Why 2K Eleven? — an insider’s look at the upcoming year

BY BOB "HOT ROD" ROHR
contributing writer

Year 2011 — time to pull out my hydronically warmed crystal ball and predict the next year. So here are my predictions, or guesstimates, for the hydronic and solar industry and market. Business-wise, work seems to be picking up around the country. My travels this year have taken me from Maine to Mississippi, from right to left coast and Alaska to Southern California. I have been exposed to an excellent cross-section of the market. I receive more daily newsletters that I can humanly read; I watch the homebuilders’ statistics; and listen to the contractors I meet. So I feel this prediction is grounded in reality. At least this week’s reality.

Hydronics is in a funk, or slump. Even in the mountain resort areas, typically the stronghold for new installation radiant work, business is way off. Repair and replacement marches on, mainly on an “as needed” basis. I’m not hearing of as many high efficiency boiler upgrades just to leverage lower operating costs. The slow economy and low fuel costs are both factors, I suspect.

When I do see new construction projects, in the high-end market, it looks like geothermal systems are the current rage. Homeowners and builders are attracted to this well-marketed concept. This is cutting into hydronics. It seems whenever the big name HVAC manufacturers have a message to drive to the consumers, their budgets dwarf that of the hydronic industries.

The radiant manufacturers are coming up with geo-compatible components. When you see the manufacturers commit their resources to a sector of the market, it’s a good indicator that this technology is needed and wanted. Manufacturers generally don’t retool without research and market analysis. Everybody backs the wrong horse now and then; however, when you see a trend across the industry, pay attention.

If I had one concern with geo — and I do — it is electric heat! Remember 50% or more of our electricity is coal fired. Natural gas fired, and in some areas diesel powered generators provide the juice. Geo systems must be calculated and installed properly. If the loop fields are not sized correctly, or the ground becomes saturated the efficiency may/ will drop. I have witnessed a few under performing “scorched earth” systems in my area.

At some point a high efficiency gas-fired mod con could outperform the heat pump, in heating mode, and cost less to operate. Only properly designed and installed geo systems will reward the owner with the advertised COP numbers.

Remember you have a 33- 35% efficiency from a lump of coal to the electricity at your meter. Don’t forget to include the cost of operating the pumps in the system also.

Many opportunities exist tying geo with solar thermal. This should present an attractive option for consumers and still leave a viable opportunity for the wethead contractors. Without a doubt, the ability to heat, cool and provide domestic hot water (DHW) favors the geothermal technologies.

I see a similar issue in the solar market. Big name, deep-pocketed PV manufacturers are better positioned to drive solar electric to the consumer. At least a small percentage of the public realizes the difference between solar electric and solar thermal. Just as hydronics has been a tough message to get mainstream, solar thermal sees the same challenge.

Solar incentives at the federal level seem to be safe for now. On one hand, this will help keep the solar message viable. But is it creating a false economy? When the incentives end will the solar industry fall flat? Quality products and professional installations are a must to prove that solar thermal is a technology that works and keeps giving beyond the payoff. That is our job as the manufacturers, specifiers, dealers and installers. Learn the technology, research the product offerings, and install the systems so future generations can point to them with pride.

Solar thermal started out with a bang in 2007 and 2008. Residential projects seem to have dropped off but the commercial market continues to see moderate growth.

I see the economy turning around and rebounding, but at a slower pace then we might like. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise. In slow times, use the opportunity to advance your knowledge. Absorb all the new technology you can. The www.s allow you to take classes from the comfort of your home or office. Look to manufacturers for webinars and other training opportunities. Increase your participation in appropriate trade associations.

Pass on the knowledge you have learned. Offer to present a seminar for local trade techs, realtors, associations, ASHRAE meetings; the list is endless when you consider ways to spread the knowledge.
I always am encouraged to see the manufacturers offering new products, regardless of the slow market. I see new boilers, circulators, controls, tools and accessories being presented in the magazines and at the trade shows.

Take it from a man who has orbited the sun more than a few times. When it comes to the economy, the sun will come out again.

Bob ‘hot rod’ Rohr has been a plumbing, radiant heat and solar contractor for more than 30 years. A long-time RPA member, Bob is manager of training and education for Caleffi North America. He can be reached at hotrodradiant@mac.com.